"This is the Earth as it looked 90 million years ago." "Geologists call this period the Late Cretaceous." "It was a time of extreme global warming when dinosaurs still ruled the planet." "They went over their lives secure in their place at the top of the food chain." "Oblivious to the changes taking place around them." "The continent was drifting apart opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust." "They flooded becoming seas." "Algae thrived in the extreme heat poisoning the water." "They died and fell in the trillions to the bottom of the rifts." "Rivers washed sediment into the seas until the organic remains of the algae were buried." "As the pressure grew so did the heat until a chemical reaction transformed the organics into hydrocarbon fossil fuels, oil and natural gas." "A similar process occurred on land which produced coal." "It took nature about five million years to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in one year." "The modern way of life is dependent on this fossilized sunlight although a surprising number of people take it for granted." "Since 1860 geologists have discovered over two trillion barrels of oil." "Since then the world has used approximately half." "Before you can pump oil you have to discover it." "At first it was easy to find and cheap to extract." "The first great american oil field was Spindletop, discovered in 1900." "Many more followed." "Geologists scoured America." "They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal." "America produced more oil than any other country enabling it to become an industry of superpower." "Once an oil well starts producing oil it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline." "Individual wells have different production rates." "When many wells are averaged together the combined graph looks like a bell curve." "Typically it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery for a country to reach its peak of production after which it enters a permanent fall." "In the 1950s Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted that" "America's oil production would peak in 1970, 40 years after the peak of US oil discovery." "Few believed him." "However in 1970 American oil production peaked and entered a permanent decline." "Hubbert was vindicated." "From this point on America would depend increasingly on imported oil." "This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks." "The 1930s saw the highest rates of oil discoveries in US history." "In spite of advanced technology the decline in the discovery of new American oil fields has been relentless." "More recent finds such as ANWR, would at best provide enough oil for 17 months." "Even in new Jack 2 field in the Gulf of Mexico, would only supply a few months of domestic demand." "Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying America's energy requirements." "Evidence is now amounting that world oil production is peaking or is close to it." "Globally the rate of discovery of new oil fields peaked in the 1960s." "Over 40 years later the decline in discovery of new fields seems unstoppable." "54 of the 65 major oil-producing nations have already peaked in production." "Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future." "The world would need to bring the equivalent of a new Saudi Arabia into production every three years to make up for declining output in existing oil fields." "In the 1960s six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used." "Four decades later the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil for every one that it finds." "Once the peak of world oil production is reached demand for oil will outstrip supply and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly affecting far more than the cost of filling the car." "Modern cities are fossil-fuel dependent." "Even roads are made from asphalt, a petroleum product, as are the roofs of many homes." "Large areas would be uninhabitable without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer." "Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles to work, school and stores." "Major cities have been zoned with residential and commercial areas placed far apart, forcing people to drive." "Suburbia and many communities were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy." "Chemicals derived from fossil fuels or petrochemicals are essential in the manufacture of countless products." "The modern system of agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, as our hospitals, aviation, water distribution systems and the US military, which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year." "Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers, key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing." "The global economy currently depends on endless growth demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy." "We are so dependent on oil and other fossil fuels that even a small disruption in supply may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives." "Energy is the ability to do work." "The average American has available the energy equivalent of above 150 slaves working 24 hours a day." "Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels." "Some fuels contain more energy than others." "This is called energy density." "Of these fuels oil is the most critical." "The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year equal to 1 cubic mile of oil which contains as much energy as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants working for the next 50 years." "Although oil only generates 1.6% of US electricity it powers 96% of all transportation." "In 2008 two thirds of America's oil was imported." "Most was from Canada," "Mexico," "Saudi Arabia," "Venezuela," "Nigeria, Iraq and Angola." "Several factors make oil unique." "It is energy-dense." "One barrel contains the energy equivalent of almost three years of human labor." "It is liquid at room temperature, easy to transport and usable in small engines." "To acquire energy, you have to use energy." "The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts." "this is called EROEI:" "energy return on energy invested." "Conventional oil is a good example." "The easy to extract high-quality crude was pumped first." "Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil to find and extract 100." "The EROEI of oil was 100." "As the easy to find oil was pumped first exploration moved into deep waters or distant countries using increasing amounts of energy to do so." "Often the oil from now is heavy or sour crude and is expensive to refine." "The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10." "If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel it's not worth the effort to get it." "It is possible to convert one fuel source into another." "Every time you do so some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost." "For instance there is unconventional oil, tar sands and shale." "Tar sands are found mainly in Canada." "Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US." "Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil" "However this requires large amounts of heat and freshwater reducing the EROEI which varies from 5 to as low as 1.5." "Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel." "Pound-for-pound containing about one third the energy of a box of breakfast cereal." "Coal exists in vast quantities and generates almost half of the planet's electricity." "The world uses almost two cubic miles of coal a year." "However global coal production may peak before 2040." "The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive as it fails to account for growing demand and decreasing quality." "Much of the high-quality anthracite coal is gone leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense." "Production issues arise as surface coal is depleted and miners have to dig deeper and in less accesible areas." "Many use destructive mountain top removal to reach coal deposits causing environmental mayhem." "Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal." "North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s and production peaked in the early seventies." "If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production is revealed." "Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas." "Such as shale gas which might help offset decline in the years ahead." "Unconventional natural gas is controversial as it needs high energy prices to be profitable." "Even with unconventional gas there may be a peak in global natural gas production around 2030." "Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist." "To replace the 10 Terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels would require 10,000 nuclear plants." "At that rate the known reserves of uranium would last for only ten to twenty years." "Experiments with plutonium-based fast breeder reactors in France and Japan have been expensive failures." "Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles." "Then there are the renewables." "Wind power has a high EROEI but is intermittent." "Hydropower is reliable but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed." "Conventional geothermal power plants use existing hot spots near the Earth's surface." "They are limited to those areas." "In the experimental EGS system two shafts would be drilled six miles deep." "Water is pumped on one shaft to be heated in fissures then rise up the other, generating power." "According to a recent MIT report this technology might supply 10 percent of US electricity by 2050." "Wave power is restricted to coastal areas." "The energy density of waves varies from region to region." "Transporting wave generated electricity in land would be challenging." "Also the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines." "Biofuels are fuels that are grown." "Wood has a low energy density and grows slowly." "The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year." "Biodiesel and ethanol are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture." "The energy profit from these fuels is very low." "Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol." "Using ethanol to supply 1/10 of projected US oil use in 2020 would require three percent of America's land." "To supply one third would require three times the area now used to grow food." "To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020 would take twice as much land as is used to grow food." "Hydrogen has to be extracted from natural gas, coal or water which uses more energy than is generated from the hydrogene." "This makes a hydrogen economy unlikely." "All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity as two coal power plants." "The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tones of coal are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel." "We have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels to meet current world demand." "As of 2007 there were only about 4 square miles." "Concentrated solar power or solar thermal has great potential though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating." "They are also limited to sunny climates requiring large amounts of electricity to be transmitted over long distances." "All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil powered machinery or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil." "When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions ask:" "Does the advocate have a working commercial model of the invention?" "What is its energy density?" "Can it be stored or easily distributed?" "Is it reliable or intermittent?" "Can it be scaled to a national level?" "Are there hidden engineering challenges?" "What is the EROEI?" "What are the environmental impacts?" "Remember that large numbers can be deceptive." "For example, 1 billion barrels of oil would satisfy global demand for only 12 days." "A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge." "As of 2007 coal generates 48.5 percent of US electricity." "21.6 is from natural gas." "1.6 is from petrolleum." "19.4 if from nuclear, 5.8 is from hydro" "Other renewables only generate 2.5 percent." "Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels with a patchwork of alternatives?" "Major technological advances are needed as well as political will and cooperation." "Massive investment, international consensus, the retrofitting of the 45 trillion dollar global economy including transportation, manufacturing industries and agricultural systems as well as officials competent to manage the transition." "If all these are achieved, could the current way of life continue?" "These bacteria live in a bottle." "Their population doubles every minute." "At 11 a.m. there is one bacteria." "At 12 noon the bottle is full." "It is half full at 11:59 leaving only enough space for one more doubling." "The bacteria see the danger." "They search for new bottles and find three." "They assume that their problem is solved." "By 12 noon the first bottle is full." "By 12:01 the second bottle is full." "By 12:02 all the bottles are full." "This is the problem that we face due to the doubling caused by exponential growth." "When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources it experienced unprecedented growth." "Even low growth rates produce large increases over time." "At a 1% growth rate an economy will double in 70 years." "At 2% rate, doubles in 35 years." "At a 10% growth rate an economy will double in only 7 years." "If an economy grows at the current average of 3% it doubles every 23 years." "With each doubling demand for energy and resources will exceed all the previous doublings combined." "The financial system is built on the assumption of growth which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it." "Banks lend money they don't have in effect creating it." "The borrowers use the newly created low money to grow their businesses and pay back the debt with an interest payment which requires more growth." "Due to this creation of debt-formed money most of the world's money represents a debt of interest to be paid." "Without continual, new and ever-larger generations of borrowers to produce growth and thus pay off these debts, the world economy would collapse." "Like a Ponzi scheme the system must expand or die." "Partly through this debt system the effects of the economic growth have been spectacular in GDP, damming of rivers, water use, fertilizer consumption, urban population, paper consumption, motor vehicles, communications and tourism." "World population has grown to 7 billion and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050." "On a flat infinite Earth this might not be a problem." "However as the Earth is round and finite we will eventually face limits to growth." "Economic expansion has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide and methane, ozone depletion, increases in great floods, damage to ocean ecosystems including nitrogen runoff." "loss of rainforest and woodland increases in domesticated land and species extinctions." "If we place a single grain of rice on the first square of a chessboard, double this and place 2 grains on the 2nd, double again and place 4 on the 3rd, double again and place 8 on the 4th and continue this way" "putting on each square twice the number of grains that were on the previous one by the time you reach the final square you need an astronomical number of grains." "9 quintillion 223 quadrillion, 372 trillion" "36 billion, 854 million 776 thousand grains." "More grain than the human race has grown in the last ten thousand years." "Modern economies, like the grains on the chessboard, double every three decades." "On which square of the chessboard are we?" "Besides energy, civilization demands numerous essential resources." "Freshwater, topsoil, food, forests and many kinds of minerals and metals." "Growth is limited by the essential resource in scarcest supply." "A barrel is made of stakes." "And like water filling a barrel growth can go no further than the lowest stake or the most limited essential resource." "Humans currently utilize 40% of all fotosynthesis on Earth." "Though it might be possible to use 80% we are unlikely to ever use 160%." "The global food supply relies heavily on fossil fuels." "Before World War One all agriculture was organic." "Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilizers and pesticides there were massive improvements in food production allowing for increases in human population." "The use of artificial fertilizers has fed far more people than would have been possible with organic agriculture alone." "Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment, transportation, refrigeration, packaging in plastic and cooking." "Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food and food into people." "About seven calories of fossil fuel energy are used to produce 1 calory of the food." "In America food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer." "Besides fossil fuel decline, there are several threats to the current system of food production." "Cheap energy, improved technology and subsidies have allowed massive fish captures." "Global fish catches peaked in the late 1980s forcing fishermen to move into deep waters." "Nitrogen runoff by fossil-fuel based fertilizers poisons rivers and seas creating enormous dead zones." "At this rate all fish populations are projected to collapse by 2048." "Acid rain from cities and industries leaches the soil of vital nutrients such as potassium, calcium and magnesium." "Another threat is a lack of water." "Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation." "The aquifers need thousends of years to fill up but can be pumped dry in a few decades." "Like oil wells." "America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low that many farmers have had to return to less productive dryland farming." "Additionally the use of irrigation and fertilizers can lead to salinization, the accumulation of salt in the soil." "This is a major cause of desertification." "Still another threat is topsoil loss." "Two hundred years ago there were six feet of topsoil on the American prairies." "Today through tillage and poor practices approximately half has gone." "Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi, like Eugene 99, which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest." "According to Norman Borlaug father of the Green Revolution stem rust has immense potential for social and human destruction." "The use of biofuels means that less land will be available for food production." "An area has a finite carrying capacity." "This is the number of animals or people that can live there indefinitely." "If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits." "The world has avoided this die-off by finding new lands to cultivate or by increasing production which has been possible largely thanks to oil." "To continue growth more resources are required than the Earth can provide." "But no new planets are available." "In the face of all these challenges global food production must double by 2050 to feed the growing world population." "One billion people are already malnourished or starving." "There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline." "The global economy grows exponentially at about 3% a year consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels, minerals and metals as well as renewable resources like water, forests, soils and fish, faster than they can be replenished." "Even at a growth rate of 1% an economy will double in 70 years." "The problem is intensified by other factors." "Globalization allows people on one continent to buy goods and food made by those on another." "The lines of supply are long placing strains on a limited oil resource." "We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities." "Modern cities are fossil-fuel dependent." "Most banking systems are based on debt forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments producing growth." "What can be done in the face of these problems?" "Many believe that the crisis can be prevented through conservation, technology, smart growth, recycling, electric cars and hybrids, substitution or voting." "Conservation will save you money but it alone won't save the planet." "If some people cut back on oil use the reduced demand would drive down the price allowing others to buy it for less." "In the same fashion a more efficient engine that uses less energy will paradoxically lead to greater energy use." "In the 19th century English economist William Stanley Jevons realized that better steam engines make coal a more cost-effective fuel source which led to the use of more steam engines which increased total coal consumption." "Growth abuse will consume any energy or resource saved through conservation." "Many believe that scientists will solve these problems with new technology." "However technology is not energy." "Technology can channel energy into work but it can't replace it." "It also consumes resources." "For instance, computers are made with 1/10 of the energy needed to make a car." "More advanced technologies may make the situation worse as many require rare minerals which are also aproaching limits." "For example 97% of the world's rare earths are produced by China, most from a single mine in inner Mongolia." "These minerals are used in catalytic converters, aircraft engines, high-efficiency magnets in hard drives, hybrid car batteries, lasers, portable X-rays, shielding for nuclear reactors, compact discs, hybrid vehicle motors, low-energy lightbulbs, fiber optics," "and flat-screen displays." "China has begun restricting the export of these minerals as demand soars." "So-called "sustainable growth" or "smart growth" won't help as it also uses non-renewable metals and minerals in ever increasing quantities including rare earths." "Recycling will not solve the problem as it requires energy and the process is not 100% efficient." "It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled." "A large portion is lost forever as waste." "Electric cars run on electricity." "As most power is generated from fossil fuels, this is not a solution." "Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production." "Each tyre alone requires about seven gallons of petroleum." "There are around 800 million cars in the world as of 2010." "At current growth rates this number would reach 2 billion by 2025." "It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long, regardless of their power source." "Many economists believe that the free market will substitute one energy source with another through technological innovation." "However the main substitutes to oil face their own decline rates." "Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition." "The US Department of Energy's Hersh report estimates that at least two decades would be needed to prepare for the effects of peat oil." "The issues of energy shortages, resource depletion, topsoil loss and pollution are all symptoms of a single larger problem:" "growth." "As long as our financial system demands endless growth, reform is unlikely to succeed." "What then will the future look like?" "Optimists believe that growth will continue for ever without limits." "Pesimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age or extinction." "The truth may lie between these extremes." "It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state." "One in which energy use is a lot less." "This would mean a harder life for most, more manual labor, more farm work and local production of goods, food and services." "What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?" "Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from faraway places." "Start walking or cycling." "Get used to using less electricity, get out of gas, try to avoid banks." "Instead of shopping at big-box stores support our local businesses." "Buy food grown locally at farmers markets." "Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food." "Learn how to preserve it." "Consider the use of local currencies should the larger economy cease to function and develop greater self-sufficiency." "None of these steps will prevent collapse but they might improve your chances in a low-energy future." "One in which we will have to be more self-reliant as our ancestors once were."