"Keep it coming." "Set me down the computer." "My name is Richard Lieberman." "I am the scientist in charge of, I was the scientist in charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory." "I'm not sure what day it is." "And I'm not precisely sure the eruption is over." "I'm trapped here in some kind of military installation in some godforsaken part of Colorado." "We've got no food, we've got no power and the ash fall has contaminated the water supply." "The air is so thick with it that we can barely breathe." "These men that I'm with, they think if we stay put that we are going to be rescued, but I honest to god believe that if we just watch and wait " "we are as good as dead." "Before it all happened, many visitors to" "Yellowstone were blissfully unaware that it was volcanic." "After all where was the cone shaped volcano, like Mt St Helens or Vesuvius?" "They didn't realise that they were actually standing on top of it." "That beneath their feet was one of the largest volcanoes in the world." "The truth is, we were only just beginning to understand the workings of the Park ourselves." "And VlRGlL, the Virtual Geophysical Imaging Laboratory, well, that was going to help us." "Maggie Chin, KCVZ News Salt Lake City." "Hello." "Hello." "Your model is very impressive, sir." "Ah thank you Miss Chin." "My question is, will it help?" "Help what, Miss Chin?" "Well in the last decade we have seen more and more ground uplift at Yellowstone." "Twelve feet, I believe, is the conservative estimate." "Well that estimate is not conservative." "Nonetheless, many of your colleagues in the scientific community believe that it's one of many signs that an eruption is coming." "I am going to let Rick Lieberman, scientist in charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, deal with that one." "Rick." "Thank you." "This is a sequence of Yellowstone's geological behaviour over the past 100 years." "OK there we go." "You see, what we have beneath our feet here at Yellowstone is a type of volcano, a type of hidden volcano, referred to as a restless caldera." "Caldera because you'll notice it resembles the shape of a cauldron and restless because it spends much of its life doing like what you see it's doing right here." "It's huffing and puffing as the magma and the hydrothermal systems beneath the ground rise and fall." "For reasons that we actually don't fully yet understand." "So this uplift that you have mentioned," "Maggie, is very simply just a part of everyday life here at Yellowstone." "So we are definitely not looking at an imminent Super-eruption?" "Let me say this, the chances of a so-called" "Super-eruption are on the order of something like one in 600,000." "In fact it's more than twice as likely that an airplane will crash into your back yard." "So." "Haven't we just seen extra ground uplift at Norris?" "Yes we have as a matter of fact, but that may well be hydrothermal, you know?" "A build up of water." "I'll tell you what Miss Chin, you give me ten bucks right now and I will offer you odds of 600,000 to one." "So if this thing does go up you'd make a killing." "OK." "Listen, I need the co-ordinates of the Taiwan quake." "Yes, Kao-Hsiung region, hey. 57 yup, 33." "Ok." "This thing takes up far too much space you know?" "Hey, thanks Matt." "Guess what this is?" "You tell me." "Pumice." "It comes from deep inside a volcano that's so hot the rocks all melt." "But when the volcano blows up, pshew it gets blown high into the sky." "And guess what?" "It floats." "Oh it does." "In my coffee" "How neat is that?" "A rock that floats." "Hey OK pal, that's enough." "Hey I found out about flights." "They said it's fine at seven months." "Oh come on Fi." "Honey we just flew to Yellowstone and back." "Yes I know but A you were with me and B you weren't in the air for like 1 1 hours." "Then I don't get to see my mum this side of Christmas do I?" "What is it?" "Shit." "We got a quake." "What?" "I'll call you, I'll see you guys soon." "This is Matt." "What's the damage?" "Oh some broken glass, for sure." "Nothing major." "OK what have we got?" "Be in touch." "6.9 10km beneath the South Arm Fork." "OK I'm running a simulation." "6.9 at what?" "10km beneath the South Arm Fork" "That's confirmed 6.9, standing by for more data." "Get me the web-cam images of the Fishing Bridge area." "Over say the last five minutes." "Oh go back." "Tell Matt he needs to get to the other end of the lake." "Where are you going to be?" ".... in my office." "Fortunately due to the remoteness of the area, damage was limited." "But tragically nine bodies have been recovered so far." "Three of them children." "All from the Fishing Bridge area of the Park." "As well, 43 people have been taken to hospital with various injuries, some of them life threatening." "I am going to hand you over to Mr Rick Lieberman of the USGS then we will take some questions." "Rick." "The earthquake, a 6.9 on the Richter Scale, occurred at 12.13 local time, centred at a depth of 10km beneath Mount Sheridan at the southern end of Lake Yellowstone." "The earthquake triggered a landslide off the" "South Arm Fork which in turn caused a tsunami wave to hit the northern shore here a few minutes later." "All indicators suggest that this quake was not volcanic, but was tectonic in its nature, caused by a grinding together of the earth's plates along a known fault line." "The pattern of after shocks of decreasing magnitude is consistent with this type of seismic activity." "Any questions?" "is it true Old Faithful has stopped?" "Yes that is true, however a ground movement can both block and unblock hydrothermal features." "Has there been any effect on the uplift at Norris?" "No, not that we have seen at all, no." "Are you still sure that there is not going to be an eruption," "Mr Lieberman?" "As I have said Miss Chin, this earthquake was not caused by volcanic activity." "As far as we know." "We are increasing our alert status to Yellow, which as you know, does mean 'watch'." "Does that mean you are not ruling out an eruption?" "Look, Miss Chin, Yellowstone has sometimes as many as 3000 earthquakes every year, none of them followed by eruptions." "Everything points to this being a one-off tragic accident." "The truth?" "We had the Hebgen Lake earthquake in 1959 couple of miles from Yellowstone." "7.5 on the Richter Scale." "Massive landslide, 29 dead." "And it didn't indicate a damn thing." "Again in 1975." "96, it didn't either.." "...I mean hell, I'm a politician not a scientist, the USGS guys tell me it's another Hebgen Lake, I have got to take their word for it." "You know?" "You go on the available facts." "Problem was that with a place the size of Yellowstone, well we didn't have all the available facts." "Richard Lieberman, YVO." "Hey, it's me." "You had better take a look at KCVC News." "I will do that, thank you, I'll call you back." "Bye." "Well Maggie I think that we ought to make a clear distinction between a regular volcanic eruption and a Super-eruption." "Mount St Helens was the most violent eruption in American history." "Killed 57 people and it erupted about 1 cubic kilometer of volcanic ash and rock." "Watching the great man huh?" "Yes." "Now let's say this cube here represented the amount of volcanic material ejected by Mount St Helens." "Now in volcanic terms it's a tiddler." "Krakatoa..." "Tiddler." "The Indonesian volcano that erupted in 1883 was 1 7 times larger than Mount St Helens, killed 36,000 people and it's represented by this cube here." "Finally we have this." "This is 2,500 times the size of Mount St." "Helens, this is a Super-volcano, this is currently sitting underneath the ground at Yellowstone Park" "And when was the last time one of these Super-eruptions happened?" "About 7 4,000 years ago in a place called" "Toba on the other side of the world, Sumatra." "Now the volcanic eruption there was so vast it created a volcanic winter, plunged the world into darkness and all but wiped out the human race." "It missed one though didn't it?" "And Yellowstone has produced eruptions on this sort of scale before?" "Oh yes, three times in the last 2million years." "And do you think that the activity that we are seeing there right now may indicate that it's about to happen for a fourth time?" "Yes I do believe that these events are cyclical." "Three caldera-forming eruptions in the last 2.1 million years means on average one eruption every 600,000 years." "And we haven't had an eruption like that at" "Yellowstone for 640,000 years." "In other words, we are overdue?" "No." "Yes I believe we are overdue." "Oh." "Jeez wept." "The warning signs are there if you care to read them." "Thank you Dr Wylie." "You're welcome" "Thank you Dr Wylie." "My god." "I know he's your brother in law, Rick, but the guy's a total numpty." "It's not a good thing, right?" "No that's not good, no." "We were trying to monitor something so vast that it was almost incomprehensible." "The Park itself is over 2million acres and somewhere within that was the volcano." "But for the longest time we couldn't figure out where." "Then in the '80s NASA took some aerial photographs of the Park." "And these photographs revealed the volcanic crater for the first time." "It turns out that we'd been looking on the wrong scale." "This crater measured 85km by 45." "Big enough to hold the largest city in the world," "Tokyo, population 18million." "Yes I did see Mr Wylie on the television." "No, no, approximately every 600,000 years sir." "I mean with a conservative margin of error we could be out by 100." "And I am telling you sir, we are not hiding anything, alright?" "Everything we know is out on our web-site." "How's it looking Matt?" "Oh it's looking good, normal." "Like to make a couple more passes though." "No sir, I'm afraid that drilling down to try to siphon off the magma wouldn't work." "No. ln fact it could probably cause the whole thing to go off." "I don't like that, can we get down there?" "It's all true, this thing's ready to blow in a matter of days, if not hours." "And everybody, absolutely everybody's going to die." "Horribly." "Ha, oh you're welcome, your holiness." "Ha." "Nice." "CO2 levels are good up here but ground level CO2 that's killing those trees." "is there or is there not a magma chamber underneath Yellowstone National Park?" "Yes Kenneth." "Yes and is this magma chamber of sufficient size that if there was an eruption there it could potentially be rated as a Super-eruption?" "Yes." "Exactly." "Could." "Well I'm not saying that there will, I'm saying that there's a chance." "No what you said on television was 'overdue'." "You know that's what you said." "'Overdue' you said." "Caught up in the moment I expect." "Well you and a few million other people I guess." "Hey let's not do this now." "Look sis, I have a legitimate scientific viewpoint." "He thinks he's..." "Look have you ever actually been to Yellowstone?" "It's not necessary." "Your excellent web-site provides all the data, I just interpret it." "Oh no you misinterpret, that's what you do." "Can we not do this now?" "Please." "Look all I'm saying is you do not go on television and create a mass panic over one potential scenario, just in order to sell a book." "Oh come on." "You don't go on television and tell everybody that everything's going to be just fine when you know damn well it might not be." "Kenneth." "No but just." "No, both of you, I said not now." "God I'm sick of this." "Do you have nothing else?" "You haven't seen your nephew in over a year." "I'm sorry." "Hello Will." "How's school?" "Seamless." "Sorry." "When I first met Rick he was a geology student, part of a team studying Yellowstone Lake." "They discovered this enormous 2000 foot log bulge beneath the Lake." "Everyone got very excited about it, press got hold of the story and convinced a lot of people that Yellowstone was going to blow." "It created this huge panic and then nothing happened." "It made Rick very cautious about what he said in public." "Then when he got the job as scientist in charge, people paid even more attention to what he said." "So, it's a boy right?" "Mmm, a little boy dragon." "Huh." "And with a new feature." "Show me." "Some sort of anomaly above the magma chamber, just below Firehole Creek Basin." "Oh yes." "Could be water or gas." "Or an intrusion of magma through a fault line opened up by the quake, right?" "lmpossible to tell until we get a clear image." "...Oh thanks." "We are still processing all the data from the Kao-Hsiung quake." "Oh god that was days ago." "Yes I know." "Listen Matt's found a section of dead pine to the north east of Sour Creek Dome." "You got a visitor." "Hang on, north east of Sour Creek Dome along a ring fracture of the caldera rim." "CO2 or heat?" "CO2 suffocating the roots." "The magma's only two to three kilometres deep at that point." "Yes or less if it's rising." "Alright so, who is it?" "Wendy something from FEMA." "Wendy Reiss?" "The under secretary in charge of the" "Federal Emergency Management Agency is here, you told her to wait in my office?" "You're fired Dave." "You can't fire me." "Yes you're lucky that's true." "I'm sorry." "Ms Reiss." "You have caught me off guard." "I'm Richard Lieberman." "Yes Rick, I recognise you from the television." "Oh." "Please call me Wendy." "Thanks, well, sorry about the mess, Wendy." "No problem." "It's been a busy couple of days." "Please sit down." "Yes, I'm just going to cut to the chase Rick." "I want to know if we should be worried about this." "Er, based on the data that we're getting, yes there are indicators that there could be an eruption." "Or it could be business as usual at Yellowstone." "And if there is an eruption then there is a good possibility that it's going to be a moderate one." "This isn't enough Rick." "If there's even the slightest chance of this happening, I want to know what that means." "I want to know what we can do about it." "How much do you know about Super-eruptions?" "Super in front of eruption I don't imagine means better?" "Can I show you something?" "Please." "See the magma chamber that sits underneath Yellowstone, well here, we think it's roughly the same dimensions as the caldera rim itself." "We think it's around 40km wide by 80km long and around 8km deep." "You think." "Yes, it's a very difficult thing to get a clear picture of." "In fact the only way to even attempt to see a magma chamber is ironically enough by relying on earthquakes." "Have a seat please." "Thank you." "It's called seismic tomography." "What we do is we plant an array of seismographs throughout the Park and then when an earthquake occurs the seismic shockwaves from these events travel through the earth." "Now these waves move slightly slower through the molten rock than through the solid rock, so we can use these slight differences in arrival time here at the seismometers to begin to calculate and plot the rough dimensions of the chamber." "It's kind of like sonar." "And that tells you how much magma is down there?" "Well what we are trying to determine essentially is the nature of this magma." "is it eruptible magma?" "is it too viscous, is it too sticky to go anywhere?" "Or is it molten enough, is it liquid enough that it can escape?" "You know we also want to know how it's situated in the chamber, is it kind of spread out in individual pods or pockets throughout the chamber?" "Or and this is what we don't want, is it accumulated in one place?" "Sufficient enough that it could trigger a Super-eruption?" "OK let's talk worst case scenario." "OK." "Well we have run some projections based on the first Super-eruption at Yellowstone at 2.1 million years ago." "Essentially because this is the one we have the most data available on." "Now if the next one were to behave in a similar way, then we would be looking at between two and 3,000 cubic kilometres of rock, gas and ash erupting across the United States in a pattern that looks like this." "Zone 1 represents 100km radius around Yellowstone." "Basically everything in this area would be completely wiped out by pyroclastic flows." "That's the rock and ash that spills from the side of an erupted column?" "That is a pyroclastic flow." "These surges can travel up to 700km an hour." "So yes these journalists were very, very lucky." "Yes this woman was caught at the edge of a pyroclastic flow, you see these surges can reach up to 800 degrees Celsius." "Anyway yes that's what happens to anyone that's within the first 100km radius of a volcano.  Now out here in Zones 2 and 3, virtually everyone and everything in these two areas will be trapped by extremely heavy ash fall." "That's roughly 3million people." "Yes." "And here out in Zone 4 we're talking about ash fall of around 15cm." "15cm that doesn't sound like a lot but you add rain to 15cm of volcanic ash and that is certainly enough to collapse a roof." "And then you know in Zone 5 it gets down to around 5cm of ash fall." "This is a huge area, covering most of the grasslands." "Any animals that happen to be grazing there." "And that's also the grain belt of course, so that's all the food gone." "And then Zone 6 we tail down to around 1cm of ash, extending out to the Eastern Seaboard." "A centimetre. I read it takes just one millimetre to close an airport." "Yes." "See the thing that people don't understand about volcanic ash is it's not like ash from your backyard barbeque, it's rock." "It's abrasive, it's pervasive, it's destructive, it shorts out electrical equipment, it clogs machinery." "You name it." "It's also extremely tiny, it's 100 microns across, it's so tiny you can inhale it and when you do it combines with the moisture in your lungs and forms a cement-like mixture." "You essentially drown in what's basically liquid concrete." "Anway that is the worst case scenario." "So you tell me." "I mean if an event like this were to happen, what is FEMA going to do?" "is it going to happen?" "is it going to happen?" "Yes. lt is going to happen." "is it going to happen in our lifetime?" "I don't know." "And that is the most honest answer that anybody can give you, Wendy." "I don't know." "I'll beep Rick" "Well contact the other stations, re-establish an exact location." "Mr Lieberman." "Yes hang on, hang on." "Mr Lieberman." "Yes." "Are you still denying the possibility of a Super-eruption?" "Norris, as I've said to you before Miss Chin," "Norris was a hydrothermal event and by no means a sure fire indicator of volcanic activity." "And certainly not on the scale that you are referring to." "Nevertheless we have issued a Code Red warning because we don't take these things lightly." "Yes thank you." "Daddy." "Yes." "He's getting famous." "But you can't rule out a Super-eruption can you?" "He looks hot." "It's twice as likely as an asteroid strike, according to some experts." "And half as unlikely as being struck by lightening" "Miss Chin and how many of us lose sleep over that?" "That's all the time we have, thank you." "Thank you very much." "Too much politics and not enough science." "OK are we ready to run this simulation?" "Let's do it." "Alright, so what I'd like to do is run through a couple of potential scenarios here." "Hey Rick we've got another quake just over a mile south of Norris." "OK how big?" "1 .9." "1 .9" "OK." "Now this anomaly that we have discovered near Norris, now this could be water and gas as we know, or worst case scenario, it could be a new pod of eruptible magma." "So I want to concentrate our simulations around this area and see what the potential damage could be." "OK?" "So option number one, let's say that we've got one cubic kilometer of eruptible magma." "OK?" "And drop it." "Run it." "No eruption." "Based on option one, it seems not." "Alright then let's keep all the other parameters the same, but increase it by five." "So we'll make it five cubic kilometres." "OK how big is this?" "Moderate, VEl-2." "VEl-2." "And duration?" "Over approximately three days." "With that amount of magma it could have been a lot bigger." "OK let's increase it by another factor of five." "And make it 25 cubic kilometres." "OK." "Whenever you are ready." "VEl-5." "Mount St Helens size." "Right." "So 10 times more magma, 1000 times more eruption." "Potentially." "OK so let's increase it by another factor of five and make it 125 cubic kilometres." "And this time let's just run it this time just from the hydrothermal blast." "Sure." "VEl-5 again." "OK." "VEl-5. again." "Oh what happened?" "Computer glitch?" "OK tell me what we just saw." "Alright I'll say it." "If we have a reservoir of melt down there that's larger than 125 cubic kilometres then this model is telling us that even a moderate eruption near Norris could destabilise the rest of the chamber and trigger a..." "VEl-8 Super-eruption." "That's great, great, and if frogs had wings then they wouldn't bump their little green arses hopping around then." "Ha ha. lf, if there was a pocket of melt over 125 cubic kilometres in a possible eruption at Norris may trigger further eruptions which maybe, just possibly could register as VEl-8." "Brilliant." "Great." "Jesus you're letting yourself be spooked by a video game." "Oh..." "Rick?" "Yes." "Hey it's Nancy." "You'd better get up here right away." "OK so where's this uplift concentrated?" "Here, Firehole River Basin." "It's miles from Norris." "Hang on, the question is, is this rising magma or is this ground water?" "I could make a plausible case for either." "Yes I know you could." "Another 2.2 to the north east of Norris." "That's the third today, so we've got another swarm coming?" "I need the SRl data for the entire Park." "Can we get more instrumentation down at Firehole River Basin?" "If we steal them from elsewhere." "Well, steal them." "The ground uplift, earthquake swarms, rising levels of carbon dioxide and the hydrothermal event." "All of these things can be indicators of volcanic activity." "Equally they can mean nothing." "We closed the Park to be safe, but that didn't stop the hoards of people coming to check it out for themselves." "Hey Rick, Rick." "Hang on." "Hey." "Miss Chin." "Can we come in?" "Look, I've got to cover this one way or another." "It's my job." "OK." "Do you want to cover this?" "Alright then you need to understand what it is that you are covering." "Yes it's me, get me Matt." "Come on in, Maggie." "Guys." "I'm sorry guys, not the crew, OK?" "Come on through." "Just not the crew. lt's me, right, we are going to give Maggie Chin the tour." "Take a look up there." "You are looking at the north western rim of the giant caldera." "Where the ground fell over 1000 feet after the last Super-eruption." "So we are in the volcano?" "Sure are." "I thought we'd take a little drive to the other side." "So, what can you see?" "Yellowstone Lake." "OK." "Now look out across the lake to that range of mountains on the far side." "The Absarokas?" "That's right." "How far would you say those mountains are from here?" "How far?" "10 miles?" "Roughly 15." "Now those mountains are where you will find the eastern edge of the giant caldera." "The western edge is about another 15 miles behind us." "And north to south it's even further, it's over 50 miles." "So that's about 45 minutes of driving and we are still only in the centre of the volcano crater." "What's your point, Matt?" "My point is, if this thing erupts you'll die." "If you think you are going to win some award or get promoted because you knew about this first, you won't." "There won't be anyone around to give you your pat on the back." "Maam, you need to get some perspective." "Where is it?" "Norris." "Do you want to suggest a change of alert?" "Yes you know another Red is going to create more panic." "This is as sure as we get." "This is imminent." "I know." "You want me to plug the data into VlRGlL?" "And find out what?" "Hang on, hang on please." "No really, and find out what?" "Please." "Let's do that and just see if..." "Jesus Rick." "Look there's going to be an eruption, OK we know that." "I don't need you to tell me what harmonic tremor means." "So now you need to advise an upgrade to the alert status and you need to let people know." "OK so if I upgrade to a Red everyone's going to think that we've got a Super-eruption on our hands." "I am not going to be held responsible for some kind of mass panic here." "OK it is our responsibility." "Jock." "No shut up Dave." "It's our job, it's our duty to let people know, to tell them what we know." "So get your arse off the fence." "And you tell me what going on TV and telling Joe Six-Pack that the end of the world is nigh." "You tell me how that's going to help this situation?" "What do you think our purpose is here?" "I will brief FEMA and I will brief the State but just before they evacuate the whole of America, they are going to want to know how big the thing's going to be." "Well at least the ship's got a bloody captain now." "What is going on?" "Nothing is going on, whatever you say." "Oh come on, what, no mention of it for weeks and all of a sudden we're going to England?" "It's not like that." "I'm not supposed to be suspicious?" "Look you said that you wanted to go and see your mum, right?" "Oh Jesus Rick, just be honest with me." "I'm being honest with you." "Yes." "If this is going to be a big eruption, you've got to come with us" "Look it's going to be exactly what I said that it's going to be." "You know, this little girl may never meet her father because of the decision you are making right now" "Come on, we all believe that this is going to be a moderate eruption." "And yes, things are going to go a little crazy in this country for a while." "That's because everyone's nervous right now." "God Rick." "That's why I'd just be happier if you both were in London, when all that's going on." "And then when things calm down then I'll come." "I'll see you." "Can we go on the plane now?" "Yes you're going to go on the plane now." "You take care of your mum OK?" "OK." "You call me when you get there." "I will." "Get on the plane." "I love you." "See ya." "I'm going to refer you to our San Francisco FEMA office and I want you to talk to Lisa Cochrane." "She will be the one to direct any activity at that point." "OK" "One moment." "Bring the centre screen volume up." "A leaked e-mail seen by KCVZ confirms that the" "US Geological Survey expects an eruption any time soon." "Possibly within hours." "And possibly with devastating consequences for America and the world." "Oh god." "I'm Maggie Chin with KCVZ News, reporting to you live from Yellowstone National Park." "Sir, this is Rick Lieberman." "Hi." "Rick, Joe Foster, Secretary for Homeland Security." "Michael you know of course." "Hi." "Governor Marshall should be joining us at any moment." "I didn't expect to see you here." "Hello everybody." "Billy, glad you could join us." "Half my State's about to be vaporised, I thought I should be, you know?" "Everyone please have a seat." "I'll get straight to the point." "This leak hasn't just caused chaos here, but around the world." "Well it certainly didn't come from USGS." "Nor from FEMA" "Yes alright people, the buck is well passed." "Wherever it came from, the media have got hold of it and now have got to address it." "So Rick, what I'm going to ask you is very simple." "I need you to make a statement ruling out the possibility of a Super-eruption." "Ruling it out?" "Nothing bigger than Mount St Helens." "People would accept that and it's what the evidence suggests." "I can't." "I beg your pardon?" "I'm sorry I can't, I can't say that." "Why the hell not?" "Because our computer model now suggests that even a small eruption could destabilise the magma chamber and trigger a Super-eruption." "Rick I understand that but you are talking a remote possibility." "No I'm talking about..." "What I am talking about are hard facts." "Fact one, there are food riots." "People are fighting each other to leave the country." "Fact two, the dollar is on its knees, Wall Street has crashed." "Your country is going down the toilet and you are telling me you are not prepared to make a statement to help stop that?" "Please with all due respect sir..." "Governor Marshall?" "Rick, every highway, every interstate in Montana," "Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Iowa and Nevada's turning into a god-damn parking lot." "Now everybody's trying to get the hell away from Yellowstone, nothing's even happened yet." "Yet." "The point is Rick, even if the worst does happen, we are clogging up the roads, screwing up the airlines, it's not going to do any of us any good." "Yes I appreciate that, Wendy, I do." "But until I have something definitive, please don't make me make statements that..." "Rick, you know as well as I do that harmonic tremor can stop as well as start." "Mike." "It is your responsibility." "My responsibility is to tell the public and the land-holders what is happening at Yellowstone." "You know that." "You used to know that" "Actually Rick, as a federal employee, your responsibility is what's best for the country." "Now you have evidence of an eruption but, and I have heard you say this yourself again and again, chances of a Super-eruption are virtually zero." "No you are right, but I..." "Then I really don't see what the problem is here." "Thank you all, see you in 10 minutes." "Tremor's strong and constant, I'm plugging the co-ordinates into the seismic image." "Should give us a clearer idea of where the magma is." "Good." "You got everything you need, Dave?" "I think so." "Right." "Well, enough to get me going until you guys join me tomorrow." "Oh we'll be out here first thing." "Alright." "Don't leave it too long." "Don't worry." "OK." "You out of here?" "I'm out of here, see you tomorrow." "You take care man." "Ladies and gentlemen, as you know..." "Rick's on TV." "...America and the world has been watching with growing anxiety the developing situation at Yellowstone National Park." "After a full briefing from the US Geological Survey and in particular the scientist in charge at Yellowstone Volcano Observatory," "Rick Lieberman, I can assure you all that after weeks of intensive monitoring at Yellowstone, they have gathered no evidence to suggest a so- called Super-eruption is imminent." "Instead the USGS believes that a small to moderate eruption - an event comparable in size to the eruption of Mount St Helens in 1980 - may be due." "At this moment we are taking the appropriate precautions in line with this scale of eruption, the evacuation of the Yellowstone vicinity is currently underway." "For those in the States bordering" "Wyoming we ask you to follow standard state advice, remain." "indoors, seal all doors and windows and stock up on sufficient food and water for three days." "I ask my fellow Americans to stay calm and to use your usual good sense at this time." "Thank you" "Mr Lieberman, Mr Lieberman," "Mr Lieberman up until now you have been extremely measured in your statements about Yellowstone." "Do you agree with Secretary Foster in what he's just said now?" "Yes yes I do." "Thank you." "What?" "They have nailed the poor bastard to the wall." "Final call for passengers on flight HA356 to San Francisco, boarding at Gate 24." "Thank you." "Boarding pass please." "Right hand side sir towards the rear of the plane." "OK thank you." "You sitting up here?" "Yes, no I'm back there." "Important business in Washington and USGS has you sitting in the back of the plane?" "I recommend a sweet publishing deal, big TV star like you." "Oh yes." "I take it you had a gun to your head this afternoon?" "Yes you could say that." "Fiona and William?" "Oh they are on a plane to London." "See you." "OK guys, the last number's in." "Fingers crossed." "Just what are we looking at here?" "1500 cubic kilometres of melt." "1500." "That's just the top of the chamber." "Sir please sit down, the captain hasn't turned the fasten seat belt sign off yet." "Sir there are no cellphones permitted." "...Field Office ... I have to ask you to turn your phone off." "Jock, I think he's over here." "Argh." "Don't touch my arm." "This is it, Matt, it's started." "is there or is there not a magma chamber underneath" "Yellowstone National Park?" "Oh yes." "And is this magma chamber of sufficient size that if there was an eruption there it could potentially be rated as a super-eruption?" "Yes." "Could, right, precisely." "Could." "If there is an eruption then there is a good possibility that it's going to be a moderate one." "This isn't enough, Rick." "If there's even the slightest chance of this happening, I want to know what that means." "Then we would be looking at between 2-3000 cubic kilometres of rock, gas and ash erupting across the United States" "in a pattern that looks like this." "...expects an eruption any time soon" "And possibly with devastating consequences for America and the world." "Jesus, Rick, just be honest with me." "I'm being honest with you." "Are you?" "Yes." "If this is going to be a big eruption, you've got to come with us." "I don't need you to tell me what harmonic tremor means." "If I upgrade to a Red everyone's going to think that we've got a super-eruption on our hands." "I am not going to be held responsible for some kind of mass panic." "Mr Lieberman, Mr Lieberman." "Yes hang on, hang on." "Yes." "Are you still denying the possibility of a super-eruption?" "It's twice as likely as an asteroid strike according to some experts." "And half as unlikely as being struck by lightening, Miss Chin." "And how many of us lose sleep over that?" "Sit down, the captain hasn't even turned the fasten your seat belt sign off." "This is is Matt. lt's started!" "Hey Bob." "Nice dress, I'm sorry to haul you away." "I've got a problem." "Who have I got from USGS?" "No-one." "What?" "I can't get through to their field office at the moment." "Hey Dave." "Michael Eldridge is on his way over." "is this vacuum entry all we have on it?" "Yes and it's only a projection." "What?" "Yes." "OK Air Force, I need a plane up here as close as it can get to take a look at this thing, let's brief the White House on the little we know so far." "Dave, get VACC on the line, I want to talk to Governor Marshall in Wyoming," "Joe Foster at Homeland and keep trying the Yellowstone Field Office." "And Bob, please get me something else to where." "Sure sure." "Mary?" "Jesus." "Get up in the chopper." "You need to take a look, Matt." "You need to see what's going on." "Make contact with Dave, let him know what's happening." "Go!" "Are you OK?" "Sir there are no cellphones permitted on this aircraft." "Field office, I understand, I need to speak to..." "Sir, I have to ask you to turn your phone off." "My name is Richard Lieberman, I'm a scientist in charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, I'm receiving news of an emergency here that could affect the flight path and safety of this aircraft." "My God has something happened?" "I need to speak to the captain, please." "OK." "Dave, come in Dave, this is Matt." "Dammit." "Dave, this is Matt." "Matt, it's me. I'm heading out to Bozeman, where are you?" "Just at the north east of Norris." "What do you see?" "It's a single vent, moderate size, for the moment." "How far from Bozeman are you?" "About an hour." "OK listen, Rick is on his way back from Washington." "We got shaken up pretty good back at the field office, it's completely down, what can you do for us?" "I'll be up and running in 30 minutes." "It's been estimated that within the first hour 100 million tonnes of pumice, rock and ash were ejected." "Powered out by something with the explosive force of 1000 Hiroshima bombs." "Then the wind carried the top of the column eastwards." "Within an hour or so, pumice and ash began to fall on towns 100s of miles away from Yellowstone." "Cody, Billings, Idaho Falls, Bozeman, where Dave was." "Can you give me a hand?" "I've just got a few things in the back of the truck to unload." "Thanks a lot." "Rick, Rick it's Dave." "Dave." "Listen, has this seismic activity, has it triggered an eruption?" "Yes, Matt said it's a single vent." "OK." "Dave I need to determine the size of this vent, I need to do that as soon as possible, alright?" "All the equipment's down and" "Matt can't get a clear view from the chopper." "Just put that down anywhere." "I'm booting up a link to, hang on ... please tell me you have a high speed data port." "Oh yes its right over there." "Oh thank god, thank you." "Sorry, Rick, yes I'll have a satellite uplink in a few minutes." "Should be able to see the ash cloud and I'll patch into VACC." "OK you listen, Dave, I need you to talk to Michael Eldridge in Washington," "OK, get a hold of him, just you know inform him about what's happening." "And tell him that we need him to declare a Red Level 3 emergency, alright, have you got that?" "Red Level 3." "I got it." "Alright, and if this vent gets any bigger, or anything else opens up, then I need to know about that, Dave." "Will do, boss." "We're wrecked in there." "We need to get out of here fast, Nancy get in the chopper go." "Me?" "Why?" "Because I say so, go." "No you're hurt, Jock, we'll take the truck, you go." "You go, you need a doctor!" "For Christ's sake man do what I say!" "Go Jock." "Get going!" "You never know, right!" "Oh my god, do you see it?" "Faster!" "It's a surge, go on, up, we can't outrun it, go up." "Was the field office too close?" "With hindsight, yes, but you have to be close to get accurate information." "And no-one could have anticipated the size of that surge, its direction or it's speed." "Pyroclastic surges can travel at up to 800km per hour with temperatures of up to 500 degrees." "They incinerate everything in their path, absolutely everything." "It's a hell coming towards you." "They didn't stand a chance." "All of them?" "They were about to leave the field office when I last spoke to them ..." "Are you sure?" "Yes, I'm sure." "I've just talked with them." "Oh Jesus." "Alright where's Jock?" "On his way to Bozeman in the chopper." "Are you at USGS?" "No, no, I'm walking into FEMA now, just hang on." "Listen I'm going to pass you over to Wendy, I've got Dave Price on the line, he's in a backup field office in Bozeman." "OK let's patch him through, everyone this is Michael Eldridge from USGS." "Dave, this is Wendy Reiss at FEMA." "Do you have any update on the size of the eruption?" "Yes, Jock Galvin left the scene by chopper a little while back and said it was a single vent." "But the GPS and sri data show signs of swelling all over the park, increasing earthquake swarms." "My guess is it's only a matter of time before we see new vents opening up." "Thank you Dave, stay on the line and keep us up to date." "Will do." "Denver, bring all SR teams to standby." "Inform Governor Marshall this can be bigger than anticipated." "Are we recommending evac?" "It's his call but we are advising against, it's safer inside than on a highway." "Well as I was saying, our flight plan has us about 348 nautical miles south of Yellowstone at our closest point." "So if ash from your volcano does head our way, the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre will divert us long before we get anywhere near it." "OK, how often does VACC check the satellite?" "About every half hour." "We can put in a call now for an update if it would make you feel better." "Yes, I'd appreciate that, if you'd keep me informed, thank you." "Sure." "Wow wohh!" "Boze Idaho is reporting a city-wide blackout?" "I'm getting reports of rolling blackouts west of Yellowstone." "Ash fallen power in relay stations." "OK tell our FEMA offices in Montana," "Nebraska, Utah, the Dakotas, to shut down their power grids and switch to back up generators as of now." "And make sure those generators protect against the ash." "I'd also advise you to shut down all air conditioning units." "The ash will get everywhere." "OK." "All federal buildings need to seal up and start recycling their clear air." "FEMA this is Air Force Trigger Two." "Go ahead Trigger Two." "I'm now monitoring the eruption column at flight level 5 0 0." "Indications are low of 2 9 0 the wind is westerly but above that it appears around to 3 3 7 degrees north north west." "Hank, Hank." "Have you got those co-ordinates?" "2 9 0 the wind is westerly ..." "Oh man, that's directly across major commercial air routes." "Hank I want all air space across the central USA cleared and put east and west coasts on stand by." "Michael, where is your guy, I need him here?" "Rick Lieberman?" "Yes." "He's in there somewhere" "He was flying back tonight." "Anyone need a blanket." "There you go." "So?" "It's a single vent." "Single vent?" "Yes." "So, Mount St Helens, then." "Yes." "Like you said" "Yeah, yeah." "What's that?" "What?" "That smell." "Sulphur." "Oh Jesus." "We're flying into the ash cloud." "We've lost both engines." "It's on back hold, I have control." "You have control?" "Right, beginning." "Mayday, mayday we have lost both engines, repeat lost both engines." "Start the drill." "Denver Centre, Denver Centre, this is ?" "Sir take your seat now." "Mayday." "Dave are you getting this?" "Yes yes I got it." "Does the guy have a zoom, can you get him to zoom in?" "Trigger two, can you zoom in?" "Wait." "Oh." "You see that, Michael?" "Another one?" "Yes." "Yes that's vent number two opened up now." "While it was just a single eruptive column there was still a chance that things would be OK." "But the second eruption, clearly there was so much magma and pressure in the chamber that it couldn't vent through a single column." "Instead the whole caldera began to unzip in a series of smaller eruptions." "Once that started, we had no idea how long it would go on for." "Days, weeks, months." "We just didn't know." "Wing anti ice." "Engine anti ice." "APU." "Ladies and gentleman, this is Captain Franks, we'll shortly be making a precautionary landing at Cheyenne." "Thank god, I thought we were done for." "The ash cloud has blasted the cockpit window." "We are landing blind." "Back of the seat in front of you, fasten your hands under your feet." "Brace ." "Brace." "Brace." "Brace." "Brace." "Brace..." "We are getting reports of large numbers fleeing into Canada along interstate 15 and 29, we're linking Nebraskas on stand by to evacuate." "Stand them down, I need to clear those roads." "And get me a transportation update on the coastguard." "The airforce is evacuating its planes at the bases of Mineot," "Grand Forks, Elthris, Nellis, Kurtland, Offen," "Peterson, Edwards." "is there anywhere they are not evacuating?" "East coast basically." "Oh thank you." "Wyoming's declared a state of emergency, they have asked for a federal disaster to be called." "Did you get that Denver?" "Guys, you guys, it looks like we have got another vent opened up." "Oh god, three vents open." "Michael, how bad is this going to get?" "Hello?" "Hey, it's me." "Rick, where are you?" "What's that noise?" "It's sirens." "Listen, Yellowstone's erupted." "What?" "I can't talk now, I'm with Ken and we are making for the FEMA office in Denver." "Denver, why?" "And when I get there, I'll call you." "No no, wait a minute." "Listen, Fi, you know I feel..." "hello?" "Rick." "Are you there?" "Rick." "Shit." "Initial reports suggest that a team of scientists from the US Geological Survey, who were monitoring the site from a field office within the park itself, have been killed." "The local towns of West Yellowstone and Bozeman ...are being evacuated amid scenes of panic and confusion." "What's going on?" "Shhh!" "Well meanwhile, the growing ash cloud is spreading south and east from Yellowstone, raining down its potentially lethal contents across a vast area." "The ash is bringing the roads and freeways to a total standstill." "Find military installations." "Hang on." "OK." "OK." "There is a military installation about four clicks this way." "They might have a com link to FEMA." "We're not going to walk." "We can't stay here, Ken." "Pop the trunk." "No Rick, Rick, for god's sake, Rick." "It's volcanic ash, we can't go out in it." "When Vesuvius erupted the people of Pompeii stayed in their houses." "How do we know that, Ken?" "Because they were preserved in volcanic ash, right." "We'd already seen from previous eruptions," "Mount St Helens, Montserrat," "Pinatubo, we'd already seen the terrible damage that even small amounts of volcanic ash can do." "If it gets in your eyes it can blind you." "When it's breathed in it will mix with the moisture in your lungs to form a suffocating cement." "It's also unbelievably dense." "Just 20 cm can collapse a roof." "Half that amount if the ash gets wet." "Only people living within a 100km radius of Yellowstone had been evacuated." "Everyone else caught under the ash cloud was in serious danger." "Dave are you getting this?" "Yes I'm seeing it." "Two more vents makes five;" "I'd say the caldera is definitely opening up." "What do you think, Michael?" "I concur with that." "Dave are we losing you?" "I believe that's here on the roof, hold on." "It's pumice coming down hard." "Dave you have got to get out of there now." "What?" "And go where?" "What, you've got a secret highway no-one knows about?" "What about the people in the motel?" "Some have gone but most have stayed inside, hoping to ride it out." "Man, I'm just hoping the room service guy's still around." "This is it." "This is it." "Hello is anyone ... ls anybody there?" "Please state your business." "Yes." "My name is Richard Lieberman, is your communication equipment working?" "Yes sir it is." "You need to contact Wendy Reiss at FEMA in Washington, it's Richard Lieberman, YVO." "Just hold on a second." "Oh shit." "Yes she's here, don't hang up." "Wendy." "Wendy Reiss." "Let him in, give him anything he wants." "They have found Rick Lieberman." "I'm Sergeant Geoffrey Johnson, hope you guys understand the precautions?" "Thanks Johnson!" "Yes thank you, thank you for letting us in." "There's water downstairs." "Water." "Thank you." "After you guys." "Follow me." "What is this place?" "It's an old Cold War bunker sometimes used as a relay station for NORAD." "Are you based here?" "No sir i just service the equipment." "I tour all these sites, spend two or three days in each one." "Have you got food and water for five days?" "One man." "The scale of the eruption is still the subject of conflicting and confusing reports." "While officials claim it is the small to moderate event predicted, the ash cloud has spread well beyond the area that's been evacuated." "Prompting fears that the eruption is much bigger than anticipated." "Oh god." "I can't believe we forgot about this." "Try that again." "Ok, go back to what you had before?" "There we are." "What do you make of it?" "Show me the satellite image." "Mapping, bring up satellite." "OK go closer." "Oh it's amazing." "OK can you give me the thermal image?" "Hey Wylie what's he doing?" "Gauging how big the eruption is." "Trying to figure how long it will last." "Well?" "Looks to me as if the various vents are beginning to define the rim of a new caldera." "So I suspect that eventually they will all merge to unzip themselves into a single massive vent." "Rick, can you give me any idea of how long this eruption will last?" "Well this looks about half as big again as the previous caldera, so I think we are, you know, you're looking at something 60km by 90km." "I mean we are looking at an event on the scale of the Huckleberry Ridge eruption." "The first at Yellowstone and the biggest." "And?" "And if that ejected 2500 cubic kilometres of material then we have to make some kind of estimate for the rate of ejection and then you do the maths." "And you've got your duration." "Give me a figure, Rick." "Say that again." "A figure, give me a figure." "Well you want me to guestimate?" "Yes." "We are looking at a duration of between five and nine days." "But it doesn't matter how long it lasts," "Wendy, make no mistake we are looking at a VEl-8." "So there's no question any more." "What happened?" "We lost the link." "Let's get that signal back." "VEl-8 Michael." "Super-eruption." "Worst case scenario?" "No it isn't." "Jock Galvin he was at the field office when..." "Worst case scenario isn't a super-eruption." "The worst case scenario is a super-eruption which goes on and on." "If a volcano ejects more than 1000 cubic kilometres of magma, it's a VEl-8." "The magma chamber under Yellowstone has the capacity of 25000 cubic kilometres." "Problem is, we don't know how much of that is eruptible magma." "But that, that is what will dictate whether this eruption goes on for days or for weeks." "By day three the volcano showed no signs of slowing." "The ash cloud had covered three quarters of the United States." "Cities like Chicago, St Louis, Detroit, Minneapolis, they were at a total standstill." "Roads, railways, airports were all closed." "The power supplies failed, the water was polluted." "Every day it moved eastwards by another 150km." "And all we could do was sit and watch." "So you guys are brothers in law?" "He married my sister, I didn't approve." "She needed some sanity in her life." "Well she got that didn't she?" "Married to a man now who works on top of an enormous volcano." "Where is she now?" "Fiona?" "She's in London." "Well." "At least she's OK." "She's not OK." "She's not OK." "As long as this eruption continues there's nobody on the planet that's going to be OK." "You can't afford to think like that, Ken." "Oh come on, toss a coin!" "Heads we live." "Tails we die. lt's that random Rick!" "Don't you try and be reasonable." "Not now!" "Ken." "Oh come on, we are running out of water, we are running out of food, the air is slowly turning to poison." "Do you believe in God, sir?" "God?" "Yes." "You think, you believe this is all God's wrath, Johnson?" "I believe in his mercy." "Oh, nice." "Well you can go outside and you can tell those 100s of 1000s of people who have just died in this sudden cataclysmic eruption of god's mercy." "This is not helping, Ken." "I'm not trying to help, Rick." "You expect optimism at the end of the world, mmm?" "Well if that's what it is, then you should probably go upstairs and take a big gulp of air then." "Because otherwise what are we sitting down here for?" "Are we delaying the inevitable, is that what we are doing?" "In my book, that's exactly what we are doing." "Well in my book, I'd like to think that I'd get to see Fiona and Will again." "You know and Johnson that he gets to see his family, I think as long as we remain focussed on that we're going to be a lot better off." "Yes well, my book's more pessimistic." "Yes well your books always are." "We have no clear idea of how long it might last or what devastation it might wreak ..." "Listen to the advice of your local emergency services." "Follow it." "May God be with you all." "Hundreds of thousands of US citizens are homeless as they've fled from the ash cloud that now covers three quarters of the country." "Thousands of others have been trapped in their homes and the Federal Emergency Management" "Agency admits it could be weeks before they can get aid to them." "Morning sir." "Morning all." "One hour ago Air Force One took off from Andrews en route to a military bunker in Florida." "That information does not leave this room." "We can't run a country under several feet of volcanic ash, but some sections of the media will still say she's running away." "Now, can we get to business." "Wendy, how many people in the fall out zones?" "About 25million." "Casualty estimate so far?" "In the immediate zone, 90 percent excluding those that got out early." "In zone two we estimate 10 percent mortality, that's approximately 35,000 people." "Zone three, 5 percent mortality, that's 122,000 people." "Zone four, 3 percent mortality, 85,000 people." "Zone five estimate one percent mortality, 220,000 people." "Total estimated deaths for the first week, 462,000 and that's assuming zone one is clear." "These are all from the ash?" "Mainly." "Either directly from ash inhalation or indirectly from roof and building collapse or power failures, especially in the hospital." "So ash related accidents." "Sir, standard advice to people was that they store enough food and water for only three days." "Today is day three." "Then, what are we going to do?" "Oh excuse me." "Wendy Reiss." "Look even when it ends, we won't be able to fly for weeks with the ash still blowing around." "So what are we actually talking about?" "You find a way, you don't just write off 25million people." "Good put him through." "We've got Rick Lieberman here." "Rick can you hear me?" "Yes, hang on, yes we got you." "Rick we have four more vents open since yesterday." "Alright has Dave been able to model these?" "We can't raise Dave." "Say that again." "I'm sorry Rick, we can't raise Dave." "Secretary Foster here, Rick." "We need to know how long this eruption is going to last, so we can plan how to rescue 25million people." "With all due respect Mr Foster l think you've got to change your game plan." "I mean what you have told people is to stay put and to sit this out." "And to wait for your help." "I believe there is simply no realistic way for you to honour that sir." "And I think that if you do people are going to die waiting for you." "You need to retract your advice." "You need to retract your advice." "You need to tell them to come to you." "Mr Lieberman, FEMA will draw on every resource possible to rescue these people, that's our federal obligation." "Sir this is not about protocol," "Mr Foster, this is about survival and nothing more." "When this ash fall stops and the air starts to clear, the people who are trapped like we are, are going to start walking." "They are going to start walking rather than stay here and wait to die." "And they are certainly not going to make it, sir, without your help." "You need to help us." "You need to tell us where to walk." "We need to have supplies dropped for us along the way." "I mean if we are going to walk for life, then it's up to you guys..." "to help us ..." "Damn it." "He wants people to walk through the ash?" "is he crazy?" "I just keep thinking, how could I have done something different?" "You know, should I have done something different?" "You know just been more decisive or stronger if I could have made the call earlier, you know, maybe that would have changed things" "Maybe that would have saved some lives." "I guess that's up to other people to judge." "And my family, it's them who will be left with the fallout ..." "Now these, these men that I'm with, they think that if we stay put that we are going to be rescued." "But I honest to God believe that if we just wait, if we just watch and wait, I honest to god think that we are as good as dead." "By day five over 2000 cubic kilometres of ash and pumice had been dumped across the United States." "2500 times more than the fallout from Mount St Helens, but that was only about 10 percent of what was in the magma chamber." "How much more would come out depended on how much more eruptible magma was down there." "The country was already on its knees." "Thousands of people were dead, millions of others homeless." "If it didn't stop soon, well, let's just say we were running out of options." "We have just received reports that" "Mexican authorities closed the border four hours ago." "According to aid workers in the area, 3million people have now gathered at the Mexican border, many of them  without shelter, food or money." "Maggie Chin, KCVZ News." "They have closed the border?" "To US citizens yes." "That's totally unacceptable;" "they are condemning people to death." "The Mexicans say they can't cope with the numbers." "Well we are going to have to kick some ass." "Oh I think the President might feel that right now is a bad time to invade Mexico, Bob." "Can we move on?" "Yes sir." "Alright our best case scenario is if the eruption stops in two days." "If that's the case, access to zones one and two won't be possible until at least three to four weeks after that." "So it's unlikely we'll find any survivors." "We can start supply drops into zones three through five about two weeks after the eruption ends, if the weather is with us." "But it's going to have to be piecemeal, depending on whether the satellite can find clean skies for the aircraft." "That's too long." "What about Rick's walk to life?" "We can't advise people to walk through the ash." "It's just too dangerous." "So are we asking people just to sit there and starve to death?" "There are 100s of 1000s, maybe millions of people stumbling around out there, looking for help." "Sir." "Alright." "We'll go with walk to life." "I need to hear a plan out of this room as to how to do that, fast." "Right." "Well?" "It's still raining." "Ash?" "Save the battery, you're going to need it outside." "Johnson." "Yeah." "Won't the Airforce be looking for you?" "For me?" "Yes, you know, leave no man behind and all that." "That's the Rangers." "So the Airforce does leave men behind?" "I guess." "Should have joined the rangers." "Cheyenne's our best bet." "We should head there." "FEMA, FEMA knows we are here." "They will send somebody." "Kenny, FEMA's got 25million people to save." "By the time they find us we'll have starved to death." "What if we eat Johnson?" "Ha ha, try it man." "Definitely a book in this when we get out, ha ha." "I don't know, one doesn't like to say I told you so." "We assumed that when all events merged together to form a new caldera, then the pressure would drop and the eruption would stop, that was our thinking." "Then on day seven, our seismographs began to pick up massive quakes and we realised that the ground within the new caldera rim was beginning to collapse, collapse into the empty space left by the ejected magma." "That's all the major drop points." "The Pentagon has 45,000 pallets, 800 planes and 560 choppers ready to go as soon as it is safe to fly." "Information leaflets?" "With the ash jumpers and in all the pallets." "You need to see this." "Does this mean?" "This means that the pressure holding the eruption column in the air is beginning to drop." "It's a good thing, it's a good thing." "And now to the news that" "America has been waiting for the end of the super-volcanic eruption at Yellowstone National Park." "At 9.1 7 am local time, the eruption column began to collapse" "Huge pyroclastic surges which radiated out over 100 miles from the base of the column." "Overwhelming the" "US airforce drone that's been monitoring the eruption." "Across America the overwhelming task of trying to bring aid to the estimated 29million people trapped by the ash fall begins." "Authorities now admit it will take weeks if not months to reach those trapped closest to the volcano." "We are going to head back towards the interstate and then turn north." "Any abandoned vehicles we come across along the way I think we should stop and check them for water in the washer bottle, food, anything we can use OK." "How far?" "Outskirts of Cheyenne are approximately 25km." "You know I've got to say, Richard, this has been a crappy book so far." "Flashlight!" "Hey, come on." "Alright." "Alright OK." "Alright." "The global effects were not fully felt until a month or so after the eruption had stopped." "Billions of tones of sulphur dioxide ejected by the volcano were wrapped their way around the northern hemisphere," "cutting down the sunlight." "Within weeks temperatures started to plummet." "As much as 20 degrees in some places." "Then the aerosols jumped to the equator ...and started to cool the southern hemisphere." "The monsoon failed, adding drought to the bitter cold." "Climatologists say we'll start getting better in a few years." "But let's just say I don't think I'll live to see another tan!" "The clear up, the scale of what we still have to do, all this time on." "80 percent of the USA covered by ash." "20 percent rendered unusable or uninhabitable, cities and towns permanently abandoned." "Billings, Cheyenne, Denver, Salt Lake City." "I don't know how we kept going to be honest." "I mean, just the animals, the livestock." "Millions dead, rotted where they fell." "And the people... lf it hadn't been for walk to life, 7.3million lives saved." "That was an achievement." "And it was Rick's achievement." "Not knowing was the hardest part." "He called from Cheyenne from the airport with Ken." "And then I didn't hear anything until Michael Eldridge called from FEMA to say they were in this bunker place." "But safe." "But then, when there was no news, I gave up all hope of ever seeing them again." "Are you OK?" "Sir." "I believe this is yours." "Why did I want to come back?" "It's hard to say." "To face the reality of what nearly happened I suppose." "How close we came to never leaving this place at all." "We were picked up in Cheyenne and when the ash finally stopped falling we were transported to Denver." "Where we waited with 1000s of others for our turn to be rescued." "It would be three months until the transatlantic routes opened up again and I made it back to my family in England." "But I soon realised couldn't stay there, not until I had seen for myself what had happened to Yellowstone," "the place I'd spent my whole life trying to understand." "Things will get better, they will eventually, nature will recover, the world will recover." "This after all is not only how life ends, it's also how life begins." "And one day, someday, Yellowstone will erupt again." "But not on my watch."